It is published simultaneously by RECNA-Nagasaki University, Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute.
Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula
A Special Report prepared for the Project
“Reducing the risk of Nuclear Weapon Use in Northeast Asia”
Co-sponsored by Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA)
Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (APLN)
Nautilus Institute
with collaboration of Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA)
December 9, 2021
Paul K. Davis and Bruce W. Bennett
This paper motivates and sketches a set of nuclear-use cases involving conflict on the Korean peninsula. The cases reflect a wide range of ways that nuclear weapons might be brandished or used in a Korean crisis. We identify possible cases by using two different lenses: a “logical” or taxonomic lens and a decisionmaking lens that asks how an actual national leader might decide to use nuclear weapons first. We then
select cases from the space of possibilities to reflect that range usefully. The use cases consider mistakes, unintended escalation, coercive threats, limited nuclear use to
reinforce threats, defensive operations, and offensive operations. They also consider the potential role of fear, desperation, responsibility, grandiosity, indomitability, and other human emotions. Some use cases are far more plausible than others at present, but estimating likelihoods is a dubious activity. The real challenge is to avoid
circumstances where the use cases would become more likely.
Keywords:
Nuclear-use Cases, Korean Peninsula, Nuclear War, Scenarios, DPRK, U.S.
Authors’ Profile:
Paul Davis is a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and a retired adjunct Senior Principal Researcher at RAND. He holds a Ph.D. in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He worked in strategic warning technology and systems analysis before joining the U.S. government to work on strategic force planning and arms control. He then joined the RAND Corporation, where his research has dealt with strategic planning under deep uncertainty. His most recent work (co-edited) is Social Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems (2019), Wiley & Sons.
Bruce W. Bennett is a professor in the Pardee RAND Graduate School and a retired adjunct International/Defense Researcher at the RAND Corporation. He is an expert in Northeast Asian security issues, having visited the region about 120 times and written much about Korean Security. His research addresses issues such as DPRK military force requirements, Korean unification, the Korean military balance, and potential Chinese military intervention in North Korea. He received a Ph.D. in policy analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School.
RECNA Newsletter Vol.10 No.1 (September 30, 2021)
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Returning to my Starting Point – a greeting upon taking office — Michiru Nishida Passing down the Reality of Atomic Bombing: Digital educational materials “Meet the Hibakusha” Between legacy and policy: Nuclear Legacy and Nuclear Policy Research Society Project on Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia (NU-NEA) – So that nuclear weapons are never used again – A Determined Step Toward a New Era: the 2021 Nagasaki Peace Declaration Youth Delegates Meet with Ms. Izumi Nakamitsu and Ms. Natsuki Yasuda Activity Report: Ninth Nagasaki Youth Delegation |
“A Guide to the World’s Fissile Material Inventory June 2021” was released. Please click on the thumbnail images below and download the pdf guide and poster.
Guides to World’s Fissile Material
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Guide to the World’s |
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How to make leaflets:
Print the English Guide (PDF) for making leaflets on both sides of A3 paper, and fold it in two then in three.
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>> Previous edtions can be downloaded from here.
Since 2015, RECNA has been compiling data on Fissile Material around the world and updating it on an annual basis. Now you can see the latest versions of “Global Inventory of Highly Enriched Uranium” and “Global Inventory of Separated Plutonium.”
See also: World’s Fissile Material Data
Since 2013, RECNA has been compiling data on nuclear warheads around the world and updating it on an annual basis. Now you can see the “Global List of Nuclear Warheads” and detailed data on “Each Country’s Nuclear Weapons Capability” updated on June 1, 2021 from here. (Past version: 2013-2017 in Japanese only; 2018-2020)
See also: World’s Nuclear Warhead Data
“A Guide to the World’s Nuclear Warheads Count June 2021” was released. Please click on the thumbnail images below and download the pdf guide and poster.
Guide to World’s Nuclear Warheads Count
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English Guide to the Worldʼs |
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How to make leaflets:
Print the English Guide (PDF) for making leaflets on both sides of A3 paper, and fold it in two then in three.
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>> Previous editions can be downloaded from here.
Vol. 4, Issue 1 of Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament (J-PAND) is now available online. There are 13 open access articles.
For the issue, see here. For the first time in the journal’s history, we have invited Dr. John Borrie (United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research) as a guest editor to publish a special feature on “Implementing the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.”
Video of the International Joint Seminar “Assessing Northeast Asia Nuclear Domino: North Korean Nuclear Threat and Japanese Responses” (Jul. 2, 2021) is now available!
This workshop was originally proposed by Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN) to assess possible responses of Republic of Korea and Japan to nuclear threats from Democratic People’s of Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 2020. Due to COVID-19 pandemic, the workshop was postponed to this year.
Now the workshop is jointly organized by APLN, Sejong Institute of ROK, and Pugwash Japan. It is intended to exchange frank opinions on this issue among experts, NGOs and parliamentarians from both countries.
This is the second series of three workshops and the first one was held in Seoul on May 14, 2021. And the third one is now planned to be held in Seoul in November 2021.
Pugwash Japan is hosting this second workshop (on-line).
Click here to view the video of the symposium.
International Joint Seminar “Assessing Northeast Asia Nuclear Domino: North Korean Nuclear Threat and Japanese Responses” (Jul. 2, 2021)
This workshop was originally proposed by Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN) to assess possible responses of Republic of Korea and Japan to nuclear threats from Democratic People’s of Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 2020. Due to COVID-19 pandemic, the workshop was postponed to this year.
Now the workshop is jointly organized by APLN, Sejong Institute of ROK, and Pugwash Japan. It is intended to exchange frank opinions on this issue among experts, NGOs and parliamentarians from both countries.
This is the second series of three workshops and the first one was held in Seoul on May 14, 2021. And the third one is now planned to be held in Seoul in November 2021.
Pugwash Japan is hosting this second workshop (on-line).
Please see the here about this program agenda and detailed information.
2021 Posters of “The World’s Nuclear Warheads Count” and “The World’s Fissile Material Inventory” were released. Please click on the thumbnail images below and download the pdf posters.
The World’s Nuclear Warheads Count
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| Jun. 2021 |  |
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>> Posters before 2021 can be downloaded from here.
The World’s Fissile Material Inventory
| Japanese | English | Korean | |
| Jun. 2021 |  |
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>> Posters before 2021 can be downloaded from here.
