長崎大学 核兵器廃絶研究センター（RECNA）

It is published simultaneously by RECNA-Nagasaki University, Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.

The U.S. Election and Nuclear Order in the Post-Pandemic World
Leon V. Sigal
 
A Working Paper presented to
The 75th Anniversary Nagasaki Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenario Project

Leon V. Sigal is director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project in New York and has participated in Track II talks with North Korea for two decades. He was a member of the editorial board of The New York Times from 1989 to 1995. He served in the Bureau of PoliticoMilitary Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, in 1979 as International Affairs Fellow and in 1980 as Special Assistant to the Director. He was a Rockefeller Younger Scholar in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in 1972-1974 and a guest scholar there in 1981-1984. From 1974 to 1989 he was a professor of government at Wesleyan University. He was an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs from 1985 to 1989 and from 1996 to 2000 and a visiting lecturer at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School in 1988, 2000, and 2018. Sigal is the author of Reporters and Officials: The Organization and Politics of Newsmaking, Alliance Security: NATO and the No-First-Use Question (with John Steinbruner), Nuclear Forces in Europe: Enduring Dilemmas, Present Prospects, Fighting to a Finish: The Politics of War Termination in the United States and Japan, 1945, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, Hang Separately: Cooperative Security Between the United States and Russia, 1985-1994, and Negotiating Minefields: The Landmines Ban in American Politics. He edited The Changing Dynamics of U.S. Defense Spending.

U.S. power and prestige may have diminished in recent years, but the United States still plays a pivotal role in international institutions, alliances, and mass media, so who becomes its president and which party controls Congress matter a lot for the global nuclear order. However unlikely it is that Donald Trump’s expressed desire to contest the election’s outcome could succeed, whether the nation can avert a violent backlash among disappointed partisans is less clear.

Nuclear weapons are often thought to be the esoteric domain of experts. Yet one need only recall that although mass activism does not guarantee policy change, three of the most significant developments in recent decades – the ban on above-ground nuclear tests, the INF Treaty, and the collapse of the Berlin Wall – would not have happened without mass protests in many countries. And citizen involvement, organized by NGOs, can even facilitate monitoring of arms agreements and nuclear developments in some countries.

The public’s understandable preoccupation with COVID-19, economic distress, racial animus, and climate change leave scant scope for paying heed to nuclear risks, which makes mobilization of a mass anti-nuclear movement unlikely. Absent popular action, however, positive change to the global nuclear order will continue to be marginal and fitful. This makes the international milieu critical for the nuclear future – a milieu that a president can influence but not determine.

President Trump’s reelection is likely to have a pernicious effect on that milieu, hindering international cooperation to limit nuclear weapons and accelerating a qualitative arms race that could endanger crisis stability. Yet two of Trump’s more positive impulses are likely to continue. He is unlikely to increase the risk of an intense crisis leading to nuclear war because he wants to avoid U.S. involvement in any wars, not start new ones. He will also try to sustain negotiations with North Korea to curb nuclear developments there, though whether he is prepared to satisfy Pyongyang’s stiffer demands remains in doubt.

His opponent, Joseph Biden, will face those same demands. Personnel is policy, and the Biden administration will likely be staffed with officials who served under President Obama. That means a return to shoring up alliances and international cooperation. It also means continuity with Obama’s nuclear policies. Whether he will curtail Obama’s modernization plans is not clear, but in contrast to Trump, he will try his best to restore the JCPOA, which could head off nuclear weapons development not only in Iran but also in Saudi Arabia. He will also strive to save START, seek technical talks with China, and not abandon the Open Skies accord.

Keywords
Biden, Trump, crisis stability, international milieu, JCPOA, New START, nuclear arms race,
Open Skies

Full text (PDF) is here.
 

It is published simultaneously by RECNA-Nagasaki University, Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.

The Impact of a Regional Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan: Two Views
G. D. Hess
 
A Working Paper presented to
The 75th Anniversary Nagasaki Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenario Project

G. D. Hess was born in the United States where he studied atmospheric science. He came to Australia in 1970 and has worked in the area of Boundary-Layer Meteorology, which covers the physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the lowest few kilometres of the Earth’s atmosphere. He retired from the Bureau of Meteorology 15 years ago. He is a former University Fellow at the University of Melbourne.

The severity of climatic effects of a regional nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, involving the use of a hundred Hiroshima-scale nuclear weapons, is contested between two groups; Mills, et al. (2014) conclude that a global Nuclear Winter would occur; Reisner, et al., (2018) conclude that No Nuclear Winter would occur. This paper discusses the different assumptions that lead to the two different conclusions. Specifically, it highlights the use of different fuel loading and different input methods for the amount and initial location of black carbon (BC) into the climate models, and discusses some underlying reasons for these different choices, including the question of what kind of fire will occur in the aftermath of a nuclear weapon being dropped on a densely populated city. The paper also briefly discusses some physical phenomena that have not been considered by either group and lays out some questions for research before any definitive conclusion about the climatic effects of a limited nuclear war can be reached.

Keywords
Nuclear Winter, model uncertainty, soot-generation, firestorm

Full text (PDF) is here.
 

REC-PP-10

Nuclear Weapons in the Taiwan Strait (July 2020)

Gregory Kulacki

During the Taiwan Strait Crisis, which began in the fall of 1954 and ended in the fall of 1958, President Dwight Eisenhower prepared to attack the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with nuclear weapons to protect the government of Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. US officials involved in the crisis believed credible US threats to use nuclear weapons deterred escalation, and those beliefs played a formative role in the evolution of US nuclear weapons policies that call for the first use of tactical nuclear weapons in a military crisis when victory using conventional weapons is not assured. This examination of the crisis, which includes consideration of documentation from PRC and Soviet archives, calls that belief into question.

★ Full text of REC-PP-10 (PDF) is here.
★ List of RECNA Policy Papers is here.
 

Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament publishes a special collection of interviews with Frank von Hippel, a renowned physicist who has devoted his life to the quest for a world without nuclear weapons.

For 50 years, Dr. von Hippel has been working as a citizen-scientist to reduce the grave dangers to humankind from nuclear-weapon and nuclear-energy programs around the world. In this special collection of edited, illustrated and footnoted interviews, von Hippel describes in vivid personal detail the many policy battles he has taken on, the state of nuclear dangers today, and his hopes for a path forward.

For the collection, see here.
 

Vol.3, Issue 1 of Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament (J-PAND) is now available online. There are 17 open access articles.

For the issue, see here.

In the issue, RECNA director Fumihiko Yoshida published an article on a workshop jointly held by Sejong Institute (ROK) and RECNA in June 2019. The article is a summary of policy proposal released as an outcome document of the workshop.

Yoshida, Fumihiko. 2020. “From Peace on Korean Peninsula to North East Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone.” Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament 3(1): 123-128. [Full Article]
 

2020 Posters of “The World’s Nuclear Warheads Count” and “The World’s Fissile Material Inventory” were released. Please click on the thumbnail images below and download the pdf posters.
 

The World’s Nuclear Warheads Count

	Japanese	English	Korean
Jun. 2020

>> Posters before 2020 can be downloaded from here.

The World’s Fissile Material Inventory

	Japanese	English	Korean
Jun. 2020

>> Posters before 2020 can be downloaded from here.
 

Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA) issued “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapon (NPT) at its 50th year juncture: thoughts on the postponement of the NPT Review Conference” on April 3, 2020.

>> for details

>> RECNA’s EYE

Postponed online event “All humans could be next Hibakushas. All humans could make others be Hibakushas” organized by Nagasaki Youth Delegation 2020 will be held on May 24th.

Even after 75 years from atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we still have about 14,000 nuclear warheads on the world and younger generation from Nagasaki now try to raise fundamental question about our responsibility for nuclear weapons. This presentation was originally scheduled to be presented as a side event at the 2020 NPT Review Conference in NewYork. But because of the pandemic caused by new corona-virus (COVID-19), we decided to present it online with some adjustments.

We expect you to get a strong message from members of Nagasaki Youth Delegation; i.e. “nuclear weapon is your problem“.

What is Nagasaki Youth Delegation?
“Nagasaki Youth Delegation” is a human resource development project since 2013, sponsored by PCU Nagasaki Council for Nuclear Weapons Abolition composed of Nagasaki Prefecture, Nagasaki City and Nagasaki University.

Contact: nagasaki.youth8th@gmail.com
 

The presentation “All humans could be next Hibakushas. All humans could make others be Hibakushas” by Nagasaki Youth Delegation 8th scheduled for May 17th has been postponed due to the problem with video conferencing tool Zoom.

Another date and time will be announced later. We apologize for this sudden postponement and keeping you waiting.

Contact: pcu_nc@ml.nagasaki-u.ac.jp
 

Nagasaki Youth Delegation will present “All humans could be next Hibakushas. All humans could make others be Hibakushas” to send a message for nuclear weapons abolition from Nagasaki.

Even after 75 years from atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we still have about 14,000 nuclear warheads on the world and younger generation from Nagasaki now try to raise fundamental question about our responsibility for nuclear weapons. This presentation was originally scheduled to be presented as a side event at the 2020 NPT Review Conference in NewYork. But because of the pandemic caused by new corona-virus (COVID-19), we decided to present it online with some adjustments.

We expect you to get a strong message from members of Nagasaki Youth Delegation; i.e. “nuclear weapon is your problem“.

What is Nagasaki Youth Delegation?
“Nagasaki Youth Delegation” is a human resource development project since 2013, sponsored by PCU Nagasaki Council for Nuclear Weapons Abolition composed of Nagasaki Prefecture, Nagasaki City and Nagasaki University.

Contact: nagasaki.youth8th@gmail.com