長崎大学 核兵器廃絶研究センター（RECNA）

Paul K. Davis
 
October 27, 2022

This report is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.
 
This report is simultaneously published by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Nautilus Institute, and the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).
 
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.

In this Policy Forum essay, Paul Davis argues: “Anyone sensible worries that a first nuclear use might well lead to escalation and general nuclear war, but the adjective “inexorably” should no longer be included.” He concludes that the Ukraine war has made the range of nuclear-use cases in Northeast Asia that he identified in 2020 even more plausible.

Paul K. Davis is a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and a retired adjunct Senior Principal Researcher at RAND. He received a B.S. in chemistry from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He worked in strategic warning technology and systems analysis before joining the U.S. government to work on strategic force planning and arms control. As a Senior Executive, he then headed analysis of global military strategy and related defense programs in the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation. He then joined the RAND Corporation, where his research has dealt with strategic planning under deep uncertainty; deterrence theory; modeling; information fusion; and causal social science for policy applications. He has served on numerous national panels and journal editorial boards. He developed and conducted a prescient nuclear-crisis war game in Seoul in 2016. His most recent major work (co-edited) is Social Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems (2019), Wiley & Sons. This essay represents his own analysis and is unrelated to RAND research.

This essay is a contribution to the “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia” (NU-NEA) project, a collaboration between the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University, Nautilus Institute, and the Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear nonproliferation and Disarmament. The project’s goal is to reduce and minimize the risk that nuclear weapons will be used in the region by developing better understandings of the processes that could lead to the first use of nuclear weapons and the potential outcomes of such nuclear weapons use. In the first year of this three-year project, the NU-NEA project team identified over 25 plausible nuclear weapons “use cases” that could start in Northeast Asia, sometimes leading to broader conflict beyond the region. These nuclear use cases are described in the report Possible Nuclear Use Cases in Northeast Asia: Implications for Reducing Nuclear Risk. The project has commissioned five contributions to update the cases in light of the Ukraine conflict, of which this essay is the second.

Keywords:　 United States, East Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Nuclear Use, Ukraine, NATO, Biden, Putin

Authors’ Profile:
Paul K. Davis is a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and a retired adjunct Senior Principal Researcher at RAND. He received a B.S. in chemistry from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He worked in strategic warning technology and systems analysis before joining the U.S. government to work on strategic force planning and arms control. As a Senior Executive, he then headed analysis of global military strategy and related defense programs in the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation. He then joined the RAND Corporation, where his research has dealt with strategic planning under deep uncertainty; deterrence theory; modeling; information fusion; and causal social science for policy applications. He has served on numerous national panels and journal editorial boards. He developed and conducted a prescient nuclear-crisis war game in Seoul in 2016. His most recent major work (co-edited) is Social Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems (2019), Wiley & Sons. This essay represents his own analysis and is unrelated to RAND research.

Full text (PDF) is here.
The page for this project is here.
 

TONG ZHAO
 
October 13, 2022

This report is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.
 
This report is simultaneously published by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Nautilus Institute, and the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).
 
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.

In this Policy Forum essay, Tong Zhao argues that China fundamentally sees the Ukraine conflict as being caused by hegemonic behavior by the US-led West forcing Russia’s hand. China has been watching and learning from Russia’s implicit use of nuclear threat, and the lessons learned may add further ambiguity and uncertainty to the interpretation and application of China’s No First Nuclear Use policy in potential conflict situations, including those involving Taiwan.

Tong Zhao is a visiting research scholar at Princeton University’s Science and Global Security Program, as well as a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on strategic security issues, such as nuclear weapons policy, deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, hypersonic weapons, and China’s security and foreign policy.

This essay is a contribution to the “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia” (NU-NEA) project, a collaboration between the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University, Nautilus Institute, and the Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear non-proliferation and Disarmament, is to reduce and minimize the risk that nuclear weapons will be used in the region by developing better understandings of the processes that could lead to the first use of nuclear weapons and the potential outcomes of such nuclear weapons use. In the first year of this three-year project, the NU-NEA project team identified over 25 plausible nuclear weapons “use cases” that could start in Northeast Asia, sometimes leading to broader conflict beyond the region. These nuclear use cases are described in the report Possible Nuclear Use Cases in Northeast Asia: Implications for Reducing Nuclear Risk. The project has commissioned five contributions to update the cases in light of the Ukraine conflict, of which this essay is the second.

Keywords:　 United States, Nuclear Strategy, Nuclear Use, Northeast Asia, China, Russia, Ukraine

Authors’ Profile:
Tong Zhao is a Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, based in Beijing at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. His research focuses on strategic security issues, including nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, space security, strategic stability, and China’s security and foreign policy. Zhao was previously a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He also has experience as a nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, and working for the Office of Foreign Affairs of the
People’s Government of Beijing Municipality. He holds a PhD in science, technology, and international affairs from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and received a B.S. in physics and an M.A. in international relations from Tsinghua University.

Full text (PDF) is here.
The page for this project is here.
 

“New Challenges for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons — Message from Nagasaki —”　　[JPN]

The heightened nuclear risk from Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine is further deepening the world’s divisions and fissures. Is the world headed down the path of strengthening nuclear deterrence or nuclear disarmament and abolition?

In this lecture, together with the Jamaican Ambassador to Japan, H.E. Ms. Shorna-Kay M. Richards, who contributed to the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), as well as experts from Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we will consider the current world situation and challenges concerning nuclear weapons and the role that the A-bombed cities should play in the world.

ALEXANDRE Y. MANSOUROV
 
October 7, 2022

This report is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.
 
This report is simultaneously published by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Nautilus Institute, and the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).
 
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.

The overall objective of the “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use in Northeast Asia” (NU-NEA) project, a collaboration between the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University, Nautilus Institute, and the Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear non-proliferation and Disarmament, is to reduce and minimize the risk that nuclear weapons will be used in the region by developing better understandings of the processes that could lead to the first use of nuclear weapons and the potential outcomes of such nuclear weapons use. In the first year of this three-year project, the NU-NEA project team identified over 25 plausible nuclear weapons “use cases” that could start in Northeast Asia, sometimes leading to broader conflict beyond the region. These nuclear use cases are described in the report Possible Nuclear Use Cases in Northeast Asia: Implications for Reducing Nuclear Risk¹.

On February 24, 2022, not long after the year 1 report was published, the Russian Federation launched what it described as a “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine. The Ukraine conflict, as it has unfolded in the intervening months, has riveted the attention of the world, changed many relationships between countries, and also changed perceptions of warfare. The NU-NEA project team realized that the changes catalyzed by the Ukraine conflict could change the way that nuclear-armed nations, and those nations that might choose to obtain such weapons in the future, think about deploying or using nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia. To address these possible changes in approach, the project team asked experts to provide input on how the Ukraine conflict might have changed the way that policymakers and military planners in each nation in Northeast Asia, plus the United States, think about their nation’s deployment or use of nuclear weapons in the event of escalation of a conflict in Northeast Asia.

In the Policy Forum essay that follows, Professor Alexandre Y. Mansourov provides his analysis of what lessons the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK) might have taken, to date, from how the Ukraine conflict has unfolded, and how those lessons may change how and under what conditions the DPRK might choose to deploy or use nuclear weapons if a conflict in Northeast Asia escalates sufficiently. Professor Mansourov argues that the lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict by DPRK leadership may make the DPRK more likely to conclude that having nuclear weapons capability will not necessarily translate to victory in a war on the Korean peninsula, that the results of Russia’s nuclear posturing during the war conflict will make the DPRK less likely to resort to nuclear weapons use, that the DPRK will be more likely to consider and perhaps pursue “nuclear sharing” arrangements with Russia and China, that the DPRK would be more likely to insist on the exclusion of tactical nuclear weapons from any eventual nuclear arms control deal with the United States and the international community, and that the Ukraine conflict may affect how the DPRK thinks about nuclear facilities in both the DPRK and the Republic of Korea as potential targets during conflicts.

¹ Available as https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/possible-nuclear-use-cases-in-northeast-asia-implications-for-reducing-nuclear-risk/.

Keywords:　Nuclear weapons, deterrence, perceptions, Ukraine, United States, North Korea

Authors’ Profile:
Alexandre Y. Mansourov is Adjunct Associate Professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, Adjunct Professor of Korean Studies at SAIS Johns Hopkins
University, Adjunct Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, and Chairman of Great Falls
Solutions International, LLC.

Full text (PDF) is here.
The page for this project is here.
 

Winners of the First Essay Contest Announced 　　[JPN]

The Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA) held a call for “opinions” applying to the First Essay Contest on “Nuclear Weapons and Our Future” as one of its 10th anniversary commemorative projects, with the aim of raising awareness of the importance of nuclear weapons issues among the younger generation and fostering human resources who can contribute to the realization of a peaceful international society.

One Grand Prize winner and two Second Prize winners have been selected, and the winners were announced and the Award Ceremony (photos) was held as follows.

The best “opinion” was published in the print version of Nagasaki Shimbun Newspaper on September 25, 2022. This is an article (in Japanese) of the electronic version.

【 Winners： 1 Grand Prize Winner, 2 Second Prize Winners 】

Grand Prize		Kokoro Nishiyama（23 years old） Master’s course at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Monterey, USA ［Opinion in Japanese］［English tr. by RECNA］
Second Prize		ALOK CHANDAN（26 years old） PhD Candidate, Department of East Asian Studies, University of Delhi, India ［Opinion in English］
Second Prize		Keisuke Aoki（29 years old） Lives in Tokyo. Company Employee. ［Opinion in Japanese］［English tr. by RECNA］

【 9 Finalists excluding winners / 54 Total Applicants 】

【 Award Ceremony 】

Awarding of the Grand Prize		Attendees of the Award Ceremony

“World’s Fissile Material Data” 2022　　 [All Lists]

The 2022 World’s Fissile Material Data have been published. The above two images can be enlarged by clicking on them. You can also view and download the following PDF versions.
　・The 2022 Global Inventory Map of Fissile Material
　・The 2022 Global Inventory of Fissile Material

The special feature of this year’s map is that for the first time since we started the publication the aggregate amount has diminished. This is in particular due to the large decline in the amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU) but the amounts of plutonium continue to follow an upward trend. A major drop in the amount of HEU was due to reductions by the US in its military-use HEU and reductions in the amounts in the possession of non-nuclear countries, an amount of 76 tons (equivalent to about 1,220 warheads). The overall rising trend in plutonium continues and although the amount of military-use plutonium has not increased much, the amount of civilian use plutonium in the non-military category (held mainly by France and Japan) rose, leading to a slight increase of the overall amount of plutonium (totaling 6 tons, equivalent to around 950 warheads).

◆ You can see the original data of the map from the following links.
　・Global Inventory of Separated Plutonium
　・Global Inventory of Highly Enriched Uranium

◆ You can see previous “World’s Fissile Material Data” from [All Lists].

◆ The 2022 World’s Nuclear Warheads Data have been published too. You can see them from here.

Michael Roach
 
August 6, 2022

This report is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.
 
This report is simultaneously published by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Nautilus Institute, and the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).
 
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.

In this photo-essay, Michael Roach provides a remarkable account of multigenerational involvement in nuclear war, including a previously unpublished photo of the starboard nose of the Enola Gay bomber that delivered the first atomic bomb and returned to Tinian airfield, showing the inscription “First Atomic Bomb – Hiroshima – August 6, 1945.” Michael Roach and his father, Kenneth Roach, both served in the US Army two decades apart on missions that involved the atomic bomb. The prospect of real atomic warfare in Japan during the 1940s, and potential atomic warfare in Korea during the 1960s, brought their lives together historically, but father and son came away from their experiences with completely different conclusions. This essay sheds light on the US government’s thinking about nuclear weapons, particularly vis-à-vis military operations in Northeast Asia. It outlines the impracticality and risks of the US strategy to use tactical atomic weapons in Korea in the 1960s.

Keywords:
Atomic warfare, United States, Northeast Asia, Hiroshima, tactical atomic bomb

Authors’ Profile:
Michael Roach is a retired renewable energy manager residing in a small Wisconsin farm town surrounded by vast green fields of corn and soybeans. He is currently writing a history of wheat culture using commodity chain analysis. His research is part of a larger project that examines the history of illumination and power technologies, from 18th century whale oil to modern microgrids. He also volunteers his time assisting in the reconstruction of Ukraine using ultra energy efficient modular multifamily housing powered by solar microgrids. He served in US Forces Korea as an Atomic Demolition Munitions engineer in 1968.

Full text (PDF) is here.
The page for this project is here.
 

Dr. Masao Tomonaga, Visiting Professor of RECNA, gave a speech at the First Meeting of States Parties to the U.N. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna on June 22. The manuscript provided by the author is posted bellow.
 

Hibakusha Story by a Nagasaki Hibakusha
Masao Tomonaga
Honorary Director, Atomic Bomb Red Cross Hospital in Nagasaki
[ Japanese Translation ]  [ UN Web TV 01:16:35~ ]

I am a Nagasaki hibakusha encountered the second atomic bomb at 2.5 km from the hypocenter. I was 2 years old. I survived in a crushed Japanese wooden house from which my mother then 20 years old took me out of the broken house. Our area was soon burnt out, getting into completely flat field.

I have no memory of this disaster I encountered. I had no acute symptoms and grew up normally. When I became a high school boy it was the time when leukemia took place at high incidence especially among young Hibakusha. This makes me anxious, I decided to become a physician. I entered Atomic Bomb Disease Institute, Nagasaki University in 1968, since then I continued my research for over 45 years. I observed high incidence of leukemia until 1970ies and the cancer of various organs then followed and continued even until now. Some hibakusha are developing second and third cancers. Thus, the cancer occurrence covers whole life of Hibakusha. Four years ago, finally, I myself suffered from prostate cancer and I’m now under chemoradiotherapy. Thanks to this modern therapy I am enjoying now good health.

We hibakusha never had a calm period relieved from the long-lasting anxiety of cancers and other diseases. We have overcome always such atomic bomb-related obstacles to re-construct our life.

Recent statistics shows an increased incidence of heart attack among aged hibakusha, that is myocardial infarction. Atomic bomb radiation may induce genetic damages, that is DNA damage, to induce not only cancers and leukemia but also cardiovascular disorders. Whole life of hibakusha can be described as a non-stop train, slowly progressive deterioration of their health during their struggle to reestablish their family and houses, that is a resurrection for new life after the bombing. Some hibakusha lost their parents or siblings who were also hibakusha due to cancers, for female hibakusha segregation was severe in finding their partners. Such segregation was especially severe in early period of 20 years after bombing, but later decreased after most hibakusha could establish their own families.

Children born to hibakusha and their parents then encountered a special type anxiety that they might develop malformation or cancers due to genetic transmission from their parents. Such anxiety has been enhanced all the way until now because of the lack of scientific evidence for genetic transmission although animal experiments had often reported positive clear results. Recently my school Nagasaki University Atomic Bomb Disease Institute established a new molecular technique to prove genetic transmission of radiation-induced genetic abnormalities from fathers’ sperm cell and mother’s ova cells to their children. This technique is called whole genome sequencing. The first trial of this molecular analysis using three pairs of high-dose exposure parents and their children ended in negative results. This technique might be the last and determinative one to draw a conclusion in this genetic matter of atomic bone radiation on human being. Our hibakusha population is in the final stage of constant shrinkage. In their final stage of hibakusha life they were very happy to see TPNW finally established in 2017 and got into power in 2021. However, we hibakusha has deeply disappointed to the fact 9 nuclear states and over 30 states which depend on nuclear weapons of allied states, especially Japan as only atomic bomb affected nation in the world is being protected by the nuclear umbrella from the allied nation, USA. We feel very sad for our country Japan depends on the nuclear weapons: We are crying.

We feel very sad to see this dilemma and high wall we need to overcome to realize a nuclear-free world before all hibakusha die and disappear from the world. Before leaving our life as hibakusha, the first human being encountered the first and second atomic bomb attack would like again to say the bombings were indiscriminative without prewarning, during work time for detonation, the selection of two cities as targets were suitably populated to examine the effect of atomic bombs on human beings, We ask world citizens to understand our life seriously. Especially we would like to pray for not seeing the genetic radiation effect over to our descendants.

Finally, I again emphasize that TPNW states parties must give strongest pressure to the nuclear weapon states to sign and join TPNW. Taking the opportunity of the coming NPT Review Conference TPNW groups must negotiate with nuclear weapon states and other nuclear dependent countries such as my country Japan to start dialogue and to have a track 1.5 meeting with non-nuclear weapon states and international NGOs such as ICAN. Hibakusha NGOs in Nagasaki recently established new organization with peace-promoting groups to restart our campaign to talk with those citizens who live in the nuclear weapon states and give lessons on our experience in 1945 and subsequent long-term consequence of antihumanitarian effects on human beings.

I stop my talk here, thank you for attention.