Reducing Nuclear Dangers on the Korean Peninsula:
Bilateral versus Multilateral Approaches
Thomas Graham, former US Ambassador,
Executive Chairman, Lightbridge Corporation
PSNA Working Paper Series (PSNA-WP-6)
April 9, 2019
Summary
This paper addresses the important issue of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. It reviews alternate solutions: an essentially bilateral solution with the United States as an associated party and a multilateral regime establishing a nuclear weapon free zone in a designated part of Northeast Asia which would include the militarily significant states in the region along with the NPT nuclear weapon states as associated parties. The effectiveness of a non-binding pledge versus a legally binding agreement and the possible availability of a nuclear assurance commitment itself a non-binding declaration or a legally binding obligation is analyzed. The verification requirements of a legally binding arrangement are outlined and associated issues such as transit through the zone established by an agreed arrangement are considered. The political salience of the two types of solutions, bilateral and multilateral is commented upon: for example what has the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea [DPRK] indicated it would accept and the likelihood that the DPRK is now prepared to be, or can be, persuaded to make the hard decision to eliminate weapons and accede to the vast verification requirements of a legally binding regime; and whether the United States would be willing to provide a negative nuclear assurance of any sort in a bilateral non-binding agreement situation as well as the level of verification it might demand in a legally binding agreement.
Prof. Fumihiko Yoshida has been appointed as the new director of RECNA. The former director, Prof. Tatsujiro Suzuki, will act as the vice director from April. We appreciate your continued support and cooperation.
New Director’s Greeting “OUR MISSION” was posted and “RECNA staff” page was renewed. Please see the following page for more information.
Dispatches from Nagasaki No.27
The notice of withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty – Statement from an atomic-bombed city
RECNA Newsletter Vol.7 No.4 (March 31, 2019)
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＿ | On Wednesday, January 9, 2019, the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS) at Seoul National University and RECNA held a signing ceremony of the renewed Memorandum of Cooperation and a press conference at RECNA. >>for details |
Peace Depot launched a new project “Toward a Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone: Citizen’s Watch for a Fair Implementation of Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Agreements” (in short: “Citizen’s Watch on the Implementation of Korean Denuclearization Agreements”) on Nov. 14, 2018.
The project publishes the “Watch Report” roughly once every three weeks, first in Japanese, then later in Korean and English. You can access the “Watch Report” from our PSNA website.
As we already posted, RECNA will interview five prominent experts on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation who will participate in 2019 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Mach 11 & 12. (Facebook Live)
Here is the updated interview schedule, so please see it.
■Interview Schedule ■
■Dr. Harald Müller
(Former Director of Peace Research Institute Frankfurt)
10:30 AM- 11:00 AM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)
【CHANGED】
■Dr. George Perkovich
(Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
15 minutes between 8:15 AM- 9:30 AM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)
【NEW】
■Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
(Director of East Asia Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey)
1:45 PM- 2:15 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)
■Dr. Li Bin
(Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
3:15 PM- 3:45 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)
【CHANGED】
■Prof. Igor Ivanov
(Former Foreign Minister of Russian Federation)
5:00 PM- 5:30 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)
■ Streaming ■
Please access RECNA’s Facebook page. 20~30 minutes interviews will be streamed. Even after the interview, you can still watch the videos on RECNA’s Facebook page.
RECNA, Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University, will interview five prominent experts on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation who will participate in 2019 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Mach 11 & 12. Please see the interview schedule below and access RECNA’s Facebook page.
■Interview Schedule ■
■Dr. George Perkovich
(Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
8:20 AM- 8:45 AM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)
■Dr. Harald Müller (Former Director of Peace Research Institute Frankfurt)
10:30 AM- 11:00 AM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)
■Prof. Igor Ivanov (Former Foreign Minister of Russian Federation)
5:00 PM- 5:30 PM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)
■Dr. Li Bin (Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
3:15 PM- 3:45 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)
■One more expert is TBD.
We will post the fixed information on RECNA’s Facebook page.
■ Streaming ■
Please access RECNA’s Facebook page. 20~30 minutes interviews will be streamed. Even after the interview, you can still watch the videos on RECNA’s Facebook page.
Under the request from Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA), three Special Essays on US-DPRK Summit in Hanoi were published. They are now available on our PSNA website. Please see them from the Links below.
“Kim–Trump summitry: Neither breakthrough nor breakdown” by Ramesh Thakur
・Profile of Dr. Ramesh Thakur
“After the 2nd US-DPRK Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam: Sustain the Inter-Korean Momentum” by Mark Byung-Moon Suh and Elisabeth Imi Suh
・Profile of Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh
・Profile of Ms. Elisabeth Imi Suh
“Applying diplomacy for the common good” by Shen Dingli
・Profile of Dr. Shen Dingli
・About PSNA (Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia)
See also:
“The North Korea–United States summit and possibilities for new security-oriented thinking” by Kyoji Yanagisawa
“WHAT TO LOOK FOR AT THE HANOI SUMMIT” by Leon V. Sigal
・Profile of Dr. Leon V. Sigal
Dr. Leon V. Sigal, Director of Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project, Social Science Research Council (USA), contributed his special essay on upcoming US-DPRK Summit in Hanoi from February 27, 2019, under the request from Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA). It is now available on our PSNA website. Please see it from the link below.
“WHAT TO LOOK FOR AT THE HANOI SUMMIT” by Leon V. Sigal
・Profile of Dr. Leon V. Sigal
・About PSNA (Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia)
“Global list of nuclear warheads” for fiscal 2018 with details on individual nations was released.
>> “Global list of nuclear warheads” for fiscal 2018 (Latest version)
