2019年5月27日

Methods for Refining Estimates of Cumulative DRPK Uranium Production

David von Hippel
Nautilus Institute Senior Associate

PSNA Working Paper Series (PSNA-WP-8)

May 27, 2019

Summary

This paper summarizes the history of what is known about uranium mining in the DPRK; describes the major uncertainties regarding DPRK uranium production; notes some of the key techniques, as used in preparing estimates of nuclear sector activity in other nations, that might be available to assist in narrowing the range of estimates of DPRK uranium and processed fissile material production; summarizes estimates of enriched uranium and plutonium production prepared by other authors; describes existing estimates of the amounts of fissile materials used in nuclear weapons tests and exported; provides a demonstration of the potential impact of remote sensing methods and testing in the DPRK in reducing uncertainties in cumulative historical uranium production, and thus in fissile materials inventories; and, offers conclusions, resulting from the potential impacts of uncertainty reduction approaches, as to which verification procedures should be key targets during negotiations with the DPRK.
 

>> for details
 

Category TOPICS
2019年5月20日

Verification of DPRK Nuclear Disarmament: The Pros and Cons of Non-Nuclear-Weapon States (Specifically, the ROK) Participation in This Verification Program

John Carlson, A Member of Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN)

PSNA Working Paper Series (PSNA-WP-7)

May 20, 2019

Summary

In the expert and diplomatic communities, it is generally considered that disarmament verification should be undertaken as far as possible on a multilateral basis. Partly this reflects experience with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s safeguards system, and partly it reflects the view of non-nuclear-weapon states that international participation is required to ensure transparency and credibility in the disarmament process. The main argument against this is proliferation risk from the diffusion of proliferation-sensitive information. However, a number of aspects of disarmament verification will not involve sensitive information, and where sensitive information is involved there are ways of enabling effective verification while protecting such information.

As yet no specific details have been negotiated on how nuclear disarmament in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will proceed, and how this will be verified. Whatever is negotiated, the international community will certainly want assurance of the integrity of the verification process. In particular, the ROK has a very direct interest in what is happening across the DMZ and has every reason to be involved in the disarmament effort. This paper discusses how this can be possible consistent with non-proliferation principles.
 

>> for details
 

Category TOPICS
2019年4月10日


Reducing Nuclear Dangers on the Korean Peninsula:
Bilateral versus Multilateral Approaches

Thomas Graham, former US Ambassador,
Executive Chairman, Lightbridge Corporation

PSNA Working Paper Series (PSNA-WP-6)
April 9, 2019

Summary

This paper addresses the important issue of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. It reviews alternate solutions: an essentially bilateral solution with the United States as an associated party and a multilateral regime establishing a nuclear weapon free zone in a designated part of Northeast Asia which would include the militarily significant states in the region along with the NPT nuclear weapon states as associated parties. The effectiveness of a non-binding pledge versus a legally binding agreement and the possible availability of a nuclear assurance commitment itself a non-binding declaration or a legally binding obligation is analyzed. The verification requirements of a legally binding arrangement are outlined and associated issues such as transit through the zone established by an agreed arrangement are considered. The political salience of the two types of solutions, bilateral and multilateral is commented upon: for example what has the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea [DPRK] indicated it would accept and the likelihood that the DPRK is now prepared to be, or can be, persuaded to make the hard decision to eliminate weapons and accede to the vast verification requirements of a legally binding regime; and whether the United States would be willing to provide a negative nuclear assurance of any sort in a bilateral non-binding agreement situation as well as the level of verification it might demand in a legally binding agreement.

>> for details
 

Category TOPICS
2019年4月1日

Prof. Fumihiko Yoshida has been appointed as the new director of RECNA. The former director, Prof. Tatsujiro Suzuki, will act as the vice director from April. We appreciate your continued support and cooperation.

New Director’s Greeting “OUR MISSION” was posted and “RECNA staff” page was renewed. Please see the following page for more information.

About RECNA
 

Category TOPICS
2019年3月31日

Dispatches from Nagasaki No.27

The notice of withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty – Statement from an atomic-bombed city

>> for details
 

Category TOPICS

RECNA Newsletter Vol.7 No.4 (March 31, 2019)

Newsletter Vol.7 No.4 _ On Wednesday, January 9, 2019, the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS) at Seoul National University and RECNA held a signing ceremony of the renewed Memorandum of Cooperation and a press conference at RECNA.
>>for details

 

Category TOPICS
2019年3月13日

Peace Depot launched a new project “Toward a Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone: Citizen’s Watch for a Fair Implementation of Korean Peninsula Denuclearization Agreements” (in short: “Citizen’s Watch on the Implementation of Korean Denuclearization Agreements”) on Nov. 14, 2018.

The project publishes the “Watch Report” roughly once every three weeks, first in Japanese, then later in Korean and English. You can access the “Watch Report” from our PSNA website.

 

Category TOPICS
2019年3月12日

As we already posted, RECNA will interview five prominent experts on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation who will participate in 2019 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Mach 11 & 12. (Facebook Live)

Here is the updated interview schedule, so please see it.
 

■Interview Schedule ■

■Dr. Harald Müller
    (Former Director of Peace Research Institute Frankfurt)
    10:30 AM- 11:00 AM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)

【CHANGED】
■Dr. George Perkovich

    (Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
    15 minutes between 8:15 AM- 9:30 AM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)

【NEW】
■Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

    (Director of East Asia Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey)
    1:45 PM- 2:15 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)

■Dr. Li Bin
    (Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
    3:15 PM- 3:45 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)

【CHANGED】
■Prof. Igor Ivanov

    (Former Foreign Minister of Russian Federation)
    5:00 PM- 5:30 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)

 

■ Streaming ■

Please access RECNA’s Facebook page. 20~30 minutes interviews will be streamed. Even after the interview, you can still watch the videos on RECNA’s Facebook page.
 

Category TOPICS
2019年3月8日

RECNA, Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University, will interview five prominent experts on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation who will participate in 2019 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Mach 11 & 12. Please see the interview schedule below and access RECNA’s Facebook page.
 

■Interview Schedule ■

■Dr. George Perkovich
    (Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
    8:20 AM- 8:45 AM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)

■Dr. Harald Müller (Former Director of Peace Research Institute Frankfurt)
    10:30 AM- 11:00 AM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)

■Prof. Igor Ivanov (Former Foreign Minister of Russian Federation)
    5:00 PM- 5:30 PM (EST in the US) on March 11 (Monday)

■Dr. Li Bin (Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
    3:15 PM- 3:45 PM (EST in the US) on March 12 (Tuesday)

■One more expert is TBD.
    We will post the fixed information on RECNA’s Facebook page.
 

■ Streaming ■

Please access RECNA’s Facebook page. 20~30 minutes interviews will be streamed. Even after the interview, you can still watch the videos on RECNA’s Facebook page.
 

Category TOPICS

Under the request from Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA), three Special Essays on US-DPRK Summit in Hanoi were published. They are now available on our PSNA website. Please see them from the Links below.

Kim–Trump summitry: Neither breakthrough nor breakdown”    by Ramesh Thakur
    ・Profile of Dr. Ramesh Thakur

After the 2nd US-DPRK Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam: Sustain the Inter-Korean Momentum”    by Mark Byung-Moon Suh and Elisabeth Imi Suh
    ・Profile of Dr. Mark Byung-Moon Suh
    ・Profile of Ms. Elisabeth Imi Suh

Applying diplomacy for the common good”    by Shen Dingli
    ・Profile of Dr. Shen Dingli

    ・About PSNA (Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia)
 


See also:

The North Korea–United States summit and possibilities for new security-oriented thinking”    by Kyoji Yanagisawa

WHAT TO LOOK FOR AT THE HANOI SUMMIT”    by Leon V. Sigal
    ・Profile of Dr. Leon V. Sigal
 

Category TOPICS

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