長崎大学 核兵器廃絶研究センター（RECNA）

このワーキングペーパーは、「被爆75年記念事業　ナガサキ・核とパンデミック・シナリオプロセス」のために執筆されたもので、RECNA、ノーチラス研究所、アジア太平洋核不拡散・軍縮ネットワーク（APLN）のウエブサイトに同時に公開されます。国際著作権許可4.0 に基づいて公開されます。

パンデミック
 
C G Nicholas Mascie-Taylor and K Moji

（要旨）
　パンデミックは、伝染病が世界に広がる、または国境を越えて広い地域や多くの人たちに影響を与える現象をいう。パンデミックは、人類史上何回も起きており、動物からのウィルス感染が増加しつつあるため、その回数も増えていると思われる。パンデミック・リスクは、「スパークリスク」（例；野生動物からの感染侵入）と「スプレッド・リスク」（感染経路とヒトの感受性による感染拡大）の組み合わせによる。パンデミックへの準備対応策を構築するのは複雑な作業であり、かなりの調整が必要となる。COVID-19のケースでは、感染モデル構築が多くの政府対応にとって重要であった。具体的には、ロックダウン（都市閉鎖）や3密回避等も含まれる。新型病原体のワクチン開発は簡単ではなく、コミュニティによる緩和対応策が不可欠である。COVID-19のケースからは、即時の対応、徹底した検査、デジタル機器による追跡調査、政府やリーダーに対する国民の信頼と国際協力などが重要であることが教訓としてあげられる。

キーワード： パンデミック、人獣共通感染症、パンデミックの影響、コミュニティ緩和策、ワクチン開発、COVID-19からの教訓

著者紹介：
　ニック・マスシーテイラー博士は、英国ケンブリッジ大学「人口生物学と健康」担当教授、グローバルヘルス研究部部長を兼務、同大学チャーチルカレッジのフェロー、欧州人類学会会長・副会長を20年間務め、ハンガリー国立科学アカデミーの海外フェローでもある。南アジアおよびアフリカにおいて、栄養・健康状態の調査研究と政府への政策提言を40年にわたって実施してきた。データ解析の専門家として、英国国際開発省、デンマーク国際開発局、世界銀行、その他16か国のデータ解析の基礎・高度教育プログラムを長年運営。博士は、30年以上にわたりバングラデシュで研究し、非感染疾患研究のコホート集団を最近立ち上げた。COVID-19感染症が発症してからは、このコホート（75,000人）を対象とした電話によるCOVID-19の症状と社会・経済影響に関する縦断的データ収集を行っている。
　門司和彦博士は、専門は人類生態学で、現在，長崎大学多文化社会学部長、および熱帯医学・グローバルヘルス研究科グローバルヘルス専攻長。熱帯医学研究所教授。2008年から2013年まで、京都の総合地球環境学研究所エコヘルスプロジェクト「熱帯アジアの環境変化と感染症」のリーダーを務めた。東京大学にて保健学修士・博士号取得。2011年から14年まで、日本熱帯医学学会会長を務めた。

英語版のみとなりますが、全文（PDF）は こちら からご覧いただけます。

It is published simultaneously by RECNA-Nagasaki University, Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.

Pandemics
C G Nicholas Mascie-Taylor and K Moji
 
A Working Paper presented to
The 75th Anniversary Nagasaki Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenario Project
 

 
Nick Mascie-Taylor is Professor of Human Population Biology and Health and Director of Research in Global Health at the University of Cambridge, UK and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge. He has served as President or Vice-President of the European Anthropological Association for nearly 20 years and is an Overseas Fellow of the Hungarian National Academy of Science. Nick has been running, monitoring and evaluating nutrition and health related surveys both from a research perspective and to formulate government policy in South Asia and Africa for over 40 years. He has considerable experience in analysing data and has been running basic and advanced data handling training programmes for Department for International Development (DFID), The British Council, Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) and The World Bank in 16 countries. Nick has worked in Bangladesh for over 30 years most recently on developing a cohort to study non-communicable disease. With the onset of covid-19 the cohort (n=75,000) has been repositioned to collect longitudinal data via telephone calls on covid-19 symptoms and the social and economic impacts.

Kazuhiko Moji is Professor of Human Ecology and the Dean of Nagasaki University School of Global Humanities and Social Sciences, and the Director of Department of Global Health at Graduate School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health. He had been the project leader of the Ecohealth Project “Environmental Change and Infectious Disease in Tropical Asia” between 2008 and 2013 at the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), Kyoto, Japan. He received his MA (1978) and Ph.D. (1987) in Health Sciences at the University of Tokyo. He was the President of the Japanese Society of Tropical Medicine between 2011 and 2014.
 

 
A pandemic is defined as an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people. Pandemics have occurred throughout human history and appear to be increasing because of rising emergence of viral diseases from animals (zoonoses). The risk of a pandemic arises from the combined effects of the Spark Risk (e.g. bushmeat hunting) and the Spread Risk (e.g. mode of transmission and population susceptibility). Pandemics have health, economic, gender, social and political impacts. Building pandemic preparedness is complex and requires considerable coordination. In the context of covid-19 modelling of transmission has been central to many government’s response including introduction of lockdown and physical distancing. Developing vaccines for novel pathogens is not simple or straightforward and community mitigation measures are essential. There are a number of lessons which have been learnt from the covid-19 pandemic including acting quickly, extensive testing, digital surveillance, public trust in government and leaders and cooperation between nations.
 

Keywords
Pandemic, zoonoses, pandemic consequences, community mitigation, vaccine development, lessons learnt from covid-19
 

Full text (PDF) is here.
 

長崎大学核兵器廃絶研究センター年報 2019

はじめに
・混迷の中での、核廃絶への持続的挑戦

RECNA活動報告（2019年4月1日～2020年3月31日）

教員活動報告

リンク集
・出版物
・活動報告
・教育
・ウェブサイト
・ナガサキ・ユース代表団

報道記事一覧

あとがき

★ 年報2019の本文は こちら からご覧ください。
★ 既刊の年報は こちら からご覧いただけます。
 

RECNAニューズレター Vol.9 No.1　(2020年9月30日発行)

対談シリーズ「核・コロナ・気候変動 ― 問題の根っこにあるもの」 ― 吉田　文彦 ポリシーペーパー「NPT発効50年：『核のある世界』に立ち向かう」2020年7月 ― 鈴木　達治郎 「軍縮教育」に関する共同研究 ― 中村　桂子 令和２年 長崎平和宣言 75年目の「核のある世界」 ― 広瀬　 訓 活動を振り返って ― ナガサキ・ユース代表団第8期生 >> 詳細情報へ

It is published simultaneously by RECNA-Nagasaki University, Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.

Nagasaki’s Voice: 75 years’ Experience
Masao Tomonaga
 
A Working Paper presented to
The 75th Anniversary Nagasaki Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenario Project
 

 
Dr. Masao Tomonaga is also hibakusha exposed at 2.5 kilometer. After graduation from Nagasaki University Medical School in 1968 he became a physician and hematologist specializing leukemia treatment. He also continued research on how radiation exposure induces maligancy. After retirement he was appointed the Director of Japanese Red Cross Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Hospital. Since 2012 he works for elderly hibakusha at Megumino-Oka Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Survivor Nursery Home as Director of Clinics.

He was also appointed in 2018 President of Nagasaki Prefecture Hibakusha Association with 2000 members. He is Vice-President of IPPNW (Nobel Peace Prize in 1985) for North Asia Region and Representative for Nagasaki Global Citizens Assembly for Nuclear Abolition (ICAN member) and Director for “Nyokonokai” dedicated for Dr. Takashi Nagai, hibakusha radiologist and author of “The Bell of Nagasaki”.
 

 
The nuclear weapon age has opened in 1945. We Nagasaki hibakusha experienced 73,000 early deaths as the first victim of human being. We saw the Cold War evoked in 1947. Another 74,000 hibakusha survived and experienced a long period of Cold War until 1992. Around 1955 hibakusha experienced a start of anti-nuclear movement. Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 struck us and whole Japanese. We experienced for the first time a real fear for nuclear war. We also experienced first recognition that human being now had ultimate weapons in human history that is capable of destroying whole humanity.

There developed some good signs such as PTBT Treaty in 1965 and NPT Treaty was enforced in 1970. Further, INF Treaty signed in 1987 between US and Soviet Union succeeded in markedly reducing nuclear warheads in 1990ies. However, we also experienced firmly established nuclear deterrence strategy on the basis of MAD theory by maintaining balanced nuclear powers in order to avoid nuclear attacks. We experienced the end of Cold War without hot war in 1989, but we experienced a strong framework of nuclear deterrence policy has been maintained until now.

NPT regime gradually changed to be inactive around 2010, resulting in shrinkage of nuclear disarmament. Hiabkusha and NGOs such as ICAN aroused for adopting TPNW by a strong solidarity and succeeded in establishing the Treaty in 2017, which is now close to be in force as international law.

Even now in 2020 hibakusha continue to suffer atomic bomb radiation- induced cancers and leukemia. This life-long health consequence prove genuine inhumane nature of nuclear weapons. We must challenge a new stage of nuclear abolition under dangerous divide between NPT supporters and TPNW promoters. To overcome this divide we require power of civil society, especially of citizens of nuclear weapon states to make their governments to abandon nuclear policy. They must listen to Nagasaki’s voice gained from many serious experiences.

Complementary amalgamation of NPT and TPNW into one treaty is key for future nuclear-free world. Coming each review conference of NPT and TPNW should be set as best theaters for confidence-building, dialogue, and scientific collaboration as shown in ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the climate change to overcome the divide. To avoid human extinction by nuclear war, intended or by accident, we will experience next 25 years as a crucial stage. We hibakusha with the most important experiences would disappear by 100 Anniversary of the atomic bombings; to see nuclear-free world or not, is the ultimate question in 21st Century for Homo sapiens.
 

Keywords
Nuclear Age, Hibakusha, Cold War, NPT, TPNW, Civil Society, Confidence-building, Nuclear-free World
 

Full text (PDF) is here.