NEWSNEWS

2024年7月2日
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Image: President Joe Biden hosts a bilateral meeting with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, Wednesday, November 15, 2023, at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, California. Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz/Wikimedia Commons


No First Use Can Still Help to Reduce US-China Nuclear Risks


Adam Mount
 
July 2, 2024

This report is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.
This report is simultaneously published by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Nautilus Institute, and the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).
It was first published in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament.

Acknowledgements: This article was commissioned by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network.

 

Abstract

No first use declaratory statements are unlikely to significantly affect US-China nuclear crises. China’s nuclear buildup raises serious questions about the meaning and durability of its longstanding declaratory policy, while the United States is unlikely to issue a similar statement. However, no first use can still play an important role in reducing risks between the two countries. First, both countries can take practical planning and posture measures to reduce their reliance on nuclear first use. Second, a bilateral discussion on no first use could lead to a valuable dialogue on the role of nuclear weapons in each country. It may be more consequential to do and discuss no first use than it is to say it.

Keywords: nuclear; no first use; China

Authors’ Profile:

Adam Mount, Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, where his work covers U.S. nuclear strategy, conventional deterrence, and progressive foreign policy. He holds a Ph.D. and M.A. from the Department of Government at Georgetown and a B.A. from Reed College.

Full text (PDF) is here.

The views represented herein are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the institutional positions.

The page for this project is here.
nu-nea_project2021-2023
 

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2024年6月7日
image
Image: U.S. Pacific Fleet, 201020-N-NO824-0097. SOUTH CHINA SEA (Oct. 20, 2020) The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56), rear, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyer JS Kirisame (DD 104), middle, and Royal Australian Navy frigate HMAS Arunta (FFH 151) sail together in the South China Sea during multinational exercises. These exercises marked the fifth time of 2020 that Australia, Japan, and the U.S. have conducted operations together in the 7th Fleet area of operations. (Courtesy photo)


East Asia’s Alliance Dilemma:
Public Perceptions of the Competing Risks of Extended Nuclear Deterrence


Lauren Sukin and Woohyeok Seo
 
June 7, 2024

This report is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.
This report is simultaneously published by the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network, Nautilus Institute, and the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).
It was first published in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament.

 

Abstract

Against the backdrop of a rapidly changing security environment in East Asia, regional actors have seen a surge in “nuclear anxiety.” Worries among citizens of US allies and partners about rising nuclear threats and nuclear proliferation risks critically shape US foreign policy in East Asia. This paper thus asks: What drives nuclear anxiety in East Asia? And how can the United States most effectively resolve it? We situate nuclear anxiety in the dynamics of abandonment and entrapment that exist between allied states, as well as in the unique regional security structure, or the hub-and-spoke system in East Asia. To better understand the implications of nuclear anxiety on regional nuclear policy, we analyze the results of an original survey conducted in June 2023 across Washington’s five allies and partners in East Asia: Australia, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The survey results suggest the presence of the dynamics of both nuclear entrapment and abandonment among these regional actors, as well as mixed interests in indigenous nuclear programs. In addition, we demonstrate how citizens of East Asia evaluate possible policy options that could help Washington mitigate regional nuclear anxiety.

Keywords: nuclear; alliances; East Asia; proliferation; security

Authors’ Profile:

Lauren Sukin is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science in the United Kingdom.
Woohyeok Seo is a Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science in the United Kingdom.

Full text (PDF) is here.

The views represented herein are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the institutional positions.

The page for this project is here.
nu-nea_project2021-2023
 

Category TOPICS
2024年6月5日

“World’s Fissile Material Data” 2024   [All Lists]

As was the case last year, the total amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU) declined but the total amount of separated plutonium increased, and the increasing tendency continues.
The total inventory of HEU was 1,255 tons, equivalent to 19,610 warheads (a decrease of 5 tons or about 70 warheads from last year). However, the overall rising trend in separated plutonium continues, with an increase of 7 tons in plutonium for civilian use, bringing the total inventory to 560 tons, equivalent to 93,270 warheads (an increase of 8 tons or about 1,270 warheads from last year). As a result, the total inventory amount increased to equivalent to 112,880 warheads, an increase of around 1,200 warheads from last year (111,680 warheads).

 

◆ The two images to the right can be enlarged by clicking on them. You can also view and download the following PDF versions.

 ・The 2024 Global Inventory Map of Fissile Material (PDF)

 ・The 2024 Global Inventory of Fissile Material (PDF)

◆ You can see the original data of the map from the following links.
 ・Global Inventory of Separated Plutonium
 ・Global Inventory of Highly Enriched Uranium

◆ You can see previous “World’s Fissile Material Data” from [All Lists].
 

[⇒ Japanese]


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“World’s Nuclear Warheads Data” 2024   [All Lists]

The 2024 World’s Nuclear Warheads Data have been published. Please click on the following thumbnail images and download the pdf posters.

Japanese English Korean
       
Jun. 2024 NuclearWH_2024_JPN NuclearWH_2023_ENG NuclearWH_2024_KOR

we have released a newly revamped “Explanatory Leaflet” and “Digital Guide.”

◇ You can see previous “World’s Nuclear Warhead Data” from [All Lists].
 

Category TOPICS
2024年4月26日

Calls for submissions! [JPN]
3rd Essay Contest on a “Nuclear Weapons Free Future”

This year’s theme:“What would you say to the leaders of countries that currently rely on nuclear weapons?”

Flyer (In Japanese Only)

The Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), with the support of the Nagasaki Shimbun, invites youth between the ages of 16 and 29 to submit an essay on a “Nuclear Weapons Free Future.”

The conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza show no signs of abating, and the specter of nuclear war persists in various regions. Against this backdrop, the year 2024 has emerged as an international “election year” with potentially significant implications for nuclear policy. The presidential elections in the United States and Russia are the most prominent, but Japan is also grappling with the prospect of a general election.

If you were to send a letter to a single leader of one nuclear weapons state, or the leaders of several or all of the nuclear weapons states, considering the worsening situation surrounding nuclear weapons, what would you ask them to do? We would like you to compose such a message, that you may address to the leader of one nuclear weapons state, or a state under the nuclear umbrella of a nuclear weapons state, like Japan, or the leaders of all or some of the nuclear weapons states (*1) and umbrella states (*2).

Entries will be divided into two groups: youth aged 16 to 19 (Under 20) and youth aged 20 to 29 (Under 30). Awards will be given to outstanding essays and there will be one grand prize winner for each age group. The two winning essays will be published in the Nagasaki Shimbun newspaper and the winning authors will be invited to participate in the award ceremony in Nagasaki on Saturday, September 21st, 2024. If the winner resides in Japan, she/he will be invited to Nagasaki to participate in person. If the winner resides overseas, he/she will be invited to participate in the award ceremony online.



*1: Russia, United States, China, France, United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea
*2: Japan, South Korea, Australia, NATO non-nuclear weapon states (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Türkiye, Greece, Germany, Spain, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Finland, Sweden), and Belarus (Following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has declared that it is also extending a nuclear umbrella to Belarus, where Russia has deployed nuclear weapons. Consequently, Belarus is now also considered to be included in this category.)

 

ELIGIBILITY
• Under-20 (Ages between 16 and 19), Under-30 (Ages between 20 and 29) as of July 31, 2024.
• Any residence or nationality is welcome.

 

APPLICATION
Please submit the following documents in PDF format by e-mail to opinion@ml.nagasaki-u.ac.jp
1. Application [form] * For download
2. Your Essay (Essays should be about 1000 words, in English, and must be original and unpublished. Your essay should be in the form of a letter/message to the leader(s) of a “nuclear armed states” or a country under the “nuclear umbrella. Make it clear in the title or in the text which leader(s) the message is addressed to.)

 

SUBMISSION DEADLINE
July 31, 2024
You will receive a notice of receipt approximately one week after submission. If you do not receive a notice please contact us at the contact information below.
* Please note that applications will not be accepted at the contact e-mail address.

 

ABOUT THE PRIZE
For Youth Under-30:
• The grand prize winner will receive a commemorative plaque, prize money of 50,000 yen, and, for a winner who resides in Japan, an invitation to the award ceremony in Nagasaki. (A winner who resides outside Japan will be invited to participate online.)
• The second prize winner will receive a commemorative plaque and prize money of 30,000 yen.
For Youth Under-20:
• The grand prize winner will receive a commemorative plaque, prize money of 30,000 yen, and, for a winner who resides in Japan, an invitation to the award ceremony in Nagasaki. (A winner who resides outside Japan will be invited to participate online.)
• The second prize winner will receive a commemorative plaque and prize money of 10,000 yen.

 

AWARD SELECTION AND ANNOUNCEMENT
Two grand prize winners and two second prize winners will be selected after strict screening by the selection committee. The committee members are:
Yuichi SEIRAI, Akutagawa Award-winning author (Chair)
Gregory KULACKI, Visiting Fellow of RECNA (Chair of the English Review Subcommittee)
Yoshiki YAMADA, Editorial Director, Nagasaki Shimbun newspaper, visiting professor of RECNA (Vice chair)
Keiko NAKAMURA, Associate Professor of RECNA (Vice chair)
Tatsujiro SUZUKI, Professor of RECNA,
Suzuka NAKAMURA, Co-president of KNOW NUKES TOKYO
Sumiko HATAKEYAMA, Co-president of Peace Boat
Ayane MURAKAMI , 9th member of Nagasaki Youth Delegation

 

SCREENING CRITERIA
Your Essay will be evaluated on the following criteria:
(1) Clarity and Logical consistency, (2) Factual content, (3) Creativity and originality, (4) Expressiveness

 

ANNOUCEMENT
The results will be announced in the Award Ceremony.
Time and Date: Saturday, September 21, 2024, 1-2 p.m.
Venue: Nagasaki University (https://www.nagasaki-u.ac.jp/en/)
The Grand Prize-winning essays will be published in full in the Nagasaki Shimbun newspaper at a later date. All winning essays will be published on the RECNA website.
* The copyright of the submitted essays belongs to entrant, but the organizer (RECNA) holds secondary use (publication online or paper format, etc.) right of the winning essays.

 

Sponsored by: the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA)
Supported by: Nagasaki Shimbun Newspaper
Nominal support organizations: Nagasaki Prefecture, Nagasaki City, NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) Nagasaki, KTN (Television Nagasaki Co.,Ltd.), NBC (Nagasaki Broadcasting Company), NCC(Nagasaki Culture Telecasting Corporation), NIB (Nagasaki International Television Broadcasting, Inc.)

* This project is funded by a donation for the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA).

Contact
Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA)
TEL: +81-95-819-2164
E-mail: recna_staff@ml.nagasaki-u.ac.jp
Website: https://www.recna.nagasaki-u.ac.jp/recna/en-top

 

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