Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition

Hotline Between Two Koreas: Status, Limitations and Future Tasks
Chung-in Moon
 
Prepared for Workshop on Hotlines
August, 2020
Convened by the Nautilus Institute, the Institute for Security and Technology, and the Stanley Center for Peace and Security

Introduction

In this paper, Moon Chung-in provides historical context on the hotlines linking South and North Korea and points to the lessons that can be learned from the decades-long effort.

A podcast with Moon Chung-in and Philip Reiner can be found here

Moon Chung-in is a distinguished professor emeritus of political science at Yonsei University.

It is published simultaneously here by Asia Pacific Leadership Network, here by Institute for Security and Technology and here by Nautilus Institute and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.

Acknowledgments: Maureen Jerrett provided copy editing services.

The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Nautilus Institute. Readers should note that Nautilus Institute seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.
Banner image is by Lauren Hostetter of Heyhoss Design.

NOTE* RECNA publishes this paper as a special Working Paper with a permission from the Nautilus Institute.

Full text (PDF) is here.
 

Lessons from COVID-19 for Tackling Global Existential Risks

A new report by the Asia Pacific Leadership Network, Nautilus Institute and RECNA explores new ways to think about addressing nuclear weapons in a world re-shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic

New analysis by the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, explores how the far-reaching impacts of COVID-19 and future pandemics could alter the landscape for nuclear risk and disarmament.

In less than a year, the global pandemic has exposed how in an interconnected world states can lack the capacity and political will to effectively manage a public disaster. The new report identifies future scenarios, challenges and opportunities for governments, civil society, and market actors to reduce existential risks, including nuclear risks, in Northeast Asia. The findings are the culmination of a series of scenario planning workshops imagining highly uncertain future conditions and generating a series of “robust actions” that if taken today would ensure that states and societies are better prepared for future risks.

Full text of the report (PDF) is here.
 

It is published simultaneously by RECNA-Nagasaki University, Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.

Hope Becomes Law:
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in the Asia Pacific Region
Richard Tanter
 
A Working Paper presented to
The 75th Anniversary Nagasaki Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenario Project

Richard Tanter is a Senior Research Associate at the Nautilus Institute and teaches international relations at the University of Melbourne. He is immediate past president of the Australian board of the International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will enter into force in January 2021, but has a long way to go towards institutionalisation and its intended impact on the dominant presumption of legitimacy and utility of nuclear weapons. Dialogue on the treaty on the treaty in the Asia-Pacific region faces a suite of issues regarding movement of the treaty towards institutionalisation as a regime. The effectiveness of regional dialogues will be affected by the following:

Full text (PDF) is here.
 

Video Release Announcement

We are pleased to announce that we have uploaded a video of Special Symposium to Commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Nagasaki Atomic Bombing: “Peace and Disarmament Education in an Emerging Era of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons”. (November 25).

in addition to the delay in the start of this Zoom transmission, we have encountered problems where the audio in Japanese was not transmitted for about 20 minutes on that day.

Again, I sincerely apologize for any inconvenience these troubles have caused. Your kind understanding and patience are highly appreciated.

Fumihiko YOSHIDA
Director, RECNA

Program

Zoom Live Stream

It is published simultaneously by RECNA-Nagasaki University, Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN), and Nautilus Institute and is published under a 4.0 International Creative Commons License the terms of which are found here.

U.S. Planning for Pandemics and Large-Scale Nuclear War
Lynn Eden
 
A Working Paper presented to
The 75th Anniversary Nagasaki Nuclear-Pandemic Nexus Scenario Project

Lynn Eden is senior research scholar (emeritus), at Stanford University. Her Ph.D. is in sociology from the University of Michigan; she works at the intersections of sociology, history, and political science. For most of her career, Eden was senior research scholar at the Center for International Security & Cooperation (CISAC) in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University; she was also associate director for research at CISAC for many of those years. Before that, Eden taught in the history department at Carnegie Mellon University. Eden has written on how people in small communities do, or plan, harm to others. Her first book, Crisis in Watertown, was a finalist for a U.S. National Book Award. She also wrote on the 1964 Ku Klux Klan murders of civil rights workers Schwerner, Cheney, and Goodman in Philadelphia, Mississippi. Most of Eden’s work, including articles, chapters, and co-edited volumes, has been on U.S politics, nuclear arms control, and U.S. foreign and military policy. Her book Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation won the American Sociological Association’s 2004 Robert K. Merton award for best book in science and technology studies. Using historical documents and personal interviews, Lynn Eden is currently writing on how organizational routines, narratives of deterrence, and jokes and humor make it possible for highly ethical U.S. military officers to revise and develop the operational war plans to “prevail” in a nuclear war.

This paper focuses on the United States and examines how developing plans to understand, prevent, prepare for, and mitigate disasters that may occur infrequently—for example, pandemics, is different from developing plans to fight and “prevail” in a large-scale nuclear war. We could say that preparing for pandemics makes sense, but that developing—and implicitly threatening to carry out—nuclear war plans only makes sense if such plans are not carried out.

Both kinds of plans involve anticipating large numbers of deaths—but at very different orders of magnitude. And, although the language of prevention and mitigation may be common to both, the probability of a pandemic depends to a considerable degree on human knowledge and social/political action. On the other hand, the reason for developing highly detailed “executable” plans to fight and “prevail” in a nuclear war is to threaten an enemy so “he” will not attack you or your allies. One cannot threaten a pandemic in hopes of deterring it from attacking. But if nuclear war plans do not deter an enemy, carrying out those plans in the hopes of destroying enemy forces will almost certainly lead to the incomprehensible destruction of all.

It is puzzling that the Trump administration did not prepare for a pandemic. It is puzzling how those who develop U.S. nuclear war plans understand what they are planning. I explore both below.

Keywords
Pandemic, scenarios, government organization, U.S. nuclear war planning, planners, outcomes, measurement, displacing emotion, humor

Full text (PDF) is here.