【Feb. 24, 2020】Anton Khlopkov, “The 2018-2019 Summitry Process and Prospects for Denuclearization of the korean Peninsula.”
THE 2018-2019 SUMMITRY PROCESS AND PROSPECTS FOR DENUCLEARIZATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA
Director, Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS), Russia
PSNA Working Paper Series (PSNA-WP-12)
February 24, 2020
With dialogue on the Korean peninsula stagnating and the United States preoccupied with the upcoming presidential election later this year, any major progress towards resolving the crisis in the region is unlikely over the next few months. In such a situation, the guiding principle is “do no harm” – in other words, the priority should be to avoid any escalation that would pose additional obstacles for new active diplomatic efforts. In this context, with regard to a future diplomatic re-opening on the Korean peninsula, a multilateral approach appears to be the most promising as it can make the negotiating process more flexible and the potential progress more sustainable. One of the possible dialogue formats is P3+3, involving three permanent Security Council members (China, Russia, and the United States) and three regional powers (the DPRK, ROK, and Japan). Of the latter trio, Tokyo has yet to prove its relevance for this format and its readiness to play a positive role in the negotiating process.
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