Indian nuclear weapons capability |
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| 【Overview】 | |||||||||||
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As of May 2018, India is estimated to possess a total of 120-130 nuclear warheads (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2017). India’s nuclear weapon is believed to be plutonium-based (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2016). As of late 2016, India possessed approximately 580 kg of weapons-grade plutonium (IPFM 2018). Given that 4-6 kg of plutonium is needed to manufacture a nuclear bomb (although this is infuenced by the level of techology), this amount is the equivalent of 97-145 nuclear warheads. With higher levels of technical sophistication, however, it is possible to obtain a bomb from 2-4kg plutonium, in which case the same Indian stockpile would suggest an arsenal of 145-290 warheads (Union of Concerned Scientists 2004). The warheads are not deployed, and they are viewed as being held in a contral depository (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2015). India possesses about six tons of reactor-grade plutonium, in addition to weapons-grade plutonium cited above (IPFM 2018). India, like the U.S. and Russia, is aiming to build a three pillar system of nuclear weapons. India’s nuclear capability consists of four types of ground-launched ballistic missile, one sea-launched ballistic missile type, and two types of aircraft. There are also at least four more types of ballistic missiles in development (two ground-launched, two sea-launched). One of them, Agni-5, has a range approximating the ICBM trajectory and Agni-6 is expected to have a longer reach. According to India’s naval program, it will build a fleet of four Indian-manufactured nuclear ballistic missiles. The first vessel, Arihant, was believed to be commissioned in August 2016 (Pndit, Rajat 2016). A second Arihant-class submarine is currently being rigged out (Gady, Franz-Stefan 2017). Construction has commenced on a third vessel (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2016). |
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| Updated : June 1, 2018 | |||||||||||
| Click here for pdf version of this table. | |||||||||||
| ● | Nuclear warheads | 120–130 | |||||||||
| ● | Nuclear weapons delivery vehicles 1), 2) | ||||||||||
| Type / designation | Missile/bomb | No. of warheads per weapon | No. of warheads | Range (km) | Payloads (kg) | Year first deployed | Remarks | ||||
| Ground-launched ballistic missile | 〜68〜56 | 3) | |||||||||
| Prithvi – 2 | 〜24 | 1 | 〜24 | 350 | 500 | 2003 | 4) | ||||
| Agni – 1 | 〜20 | 1 | 〜20 | 700 | + | 1,000 | 2007 | 5) | |||
| Agni – 2 | 〜16 | 1 | 〜16〜8 | 2,000 | + | 1,000 | 2011 | 6) | |||
| Agni – 3 | 〜8 | 1 | 〜8〜4 | 3,200 | + | 1,500 | 2014？ | 7) | |||
| Agni – 4 | unknown | unknown | unknown | 3,500 | + | 1,000 | 2018？ | 8) | |||
| Agni – 5 | unknown | unknown | unknown | 5,200 | + | 1,000 | In development (2020) | 9), 10) | |||
| SLBM | 2–14 | ||||||||||
| Dhanush | 2 | 1 | 2 | 350 | 500 | 2013 | 11) | ||||
| Sagarika (K-15/B-05) | (12) | 1 | (12) | 700 | 500–600 | In development | 12) | ||||
| K-4 | unknown | unknown | unknown | ~ 3,000 | In development | 13) | |||||
| Airborne weapons | 〜48 | 14) | |||||||||
| Loading machine : Mirage 2000H (Vajra) | 〜32 | 1 | 〜32 | 1,850 | 6,300 | 1985 | 15) | ||||
| Loading machine : Jaguar 1S/1B (Shamsher) | 〜16 | 1 | 〜16 | 1,400 | 4,760 | 1981 | 16) | ||||
| 【Notes】 | |||||||||||
| 1) | The source for information on payloads is Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2014. Other sources for information are Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2017. | ||||||||||
| 2) | There have been reports that the Nirbhay cruise missile (range: 700-1,000 km, payload: 450 kg) is also capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. A test launch on October 16, 2015, failed due to glitches in guidance technology (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2016). India is now developing a sea-launched variant of Nirbhay to be deployed on the INS Arihant (SSBN 80) ballistic missile submarine (see footnote 14) (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2016). | ||||||||||
| 3) | In June 2013, the DRDO announced that the Prithvi 1 (150km range) will be retired and DRDO will replace it with a new missile, the Prahaar (150km range, solid fuel). Whether Prahaar has nuclear delivery capability is unknown (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2014). | ||||||||||
| 4) | Single-stage. Liquid-propellant. Road-mobile. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 12kt. The recent test launches were conducted on February 6 (Rout, Kumar Hemant 2018-1) and February 21, 2018 (first night time test; Rout, Kumar Hemant 2018-3). | ||||||||||
| 5) | Single-stage. Solid-propellant. Road-mobile. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 40kt. Operational in 2007 and deployed with 334th Missile Group (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2014). The latest test launch was conducted on February 6, 2018 (The Times of India, 2018-2). | ||||||||||
| 6) | Single-stage. Solid-propellant. Road-mobile. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 40kt. The latest test launch was conducted on February 20, 2018 (Rout, Kumar Hemant 2018-2). | ||||||||||
| 7) | Two-stage. Solid-propellant. Road-mobile. The yield of nuclear warhead is 40kt. The latest test launch was conducted on April 27, 2017 (The New Indian Express 2017). | ||||||||||
| 8) | Two-stage. Solid-propellant. Road-mobile. The yeild of nuclear warhead is 40kt. The latest test launch was conducted on January 2, 2017 (Hidustan Times 2017-1). | ||||||||||
| 9) | Three-stage. Solid-propellant. Rail-mobile. The yield of nuclear warhead is 40kt. The latest test launch was conducted on January 18, 2018 (The times of India 2018-1). While many reports allude to Indian plans to MIR the Agni-5, Kristensen and Norris discount the scenario (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2017). | ||||||||||
| 10) | Public statements by DRDO officials claim India is capable of developing ICBMs with a trajectory of more than 10,000km (NDTV 2015). | ||||||||||
| 11) | Single-stage. Liquid-propellant. The yield of nuclear warhead is 12kt. The naval version of the Prithvi-2. It is launched from Sukanya-class offshore patrol vessels. The latest test launch was conducted on February 23, 2018 (The Times of India 2018-3). | ||||||||||
| 12) | Two-stage. Solid-propellant. The yield of nuclear warhead is 12kt. The latest test launch was conducted on January 27, 2013 (Mallikarjun, Y. & Subramanian, T. S. 2013). It will be deployed on Arihant-class submarines. Arihant nuclear submarine can carry 12 K-15 missiles (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2014). The ground-launched model of the K-15 is called the Shourya, and it may attain nuclear capability (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2014). Shourya was successfully test launched for the third time on September 23, 2011 (Subramanian, T. S. & Mallikarjun, Y. 2011). | ||||||||||
| 13) | Two-stage. Solid-propellant. A launch test on March 22, 2016, was a success (Gady, Franz-Stefan 2016), only to be followed by a failure on December 17, 2017 (The Print 2017). It is expected to replace the K-15s on the Arihant-class fleet (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2016). The Arihant nuclear submarine can carry four K-4 missiles (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2014). There are reports on the ongoing development of a K-5 variant with a 5,000km range (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2016). | ||||||||||
| 14) | Other fighter-bombers (including the Su-30MKI) are believed to have a secondary role in delivering nuclear missions. | ||||||||||
| 15) | No. 1 Squadron and No. 7 Squadron (a total of 49 aircraft) of 40 Wing are deployed at Maharajpur Air Force Station, and No. 1 Squadron is thought to have a nuclear mission (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2012). | ||||||||||
| 16) | Out of four squadrons (a total of 76 aircraft), two are considered to have nuclear missions (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2012). | ||||||||||
| 【Source】 | |||||||||||
| Gady, Franz-Stefan 2016: “India Successfully Tests New Ballistic Missile,” The Diplomat, 22 March 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/india-successfully-tests-new-ballistic-missile/ (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Gady, Franz-Stefan 2017: “India Launches Second Ballistic Missile Sub,” The Diplomat, 13 December 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/india-launches-second-ballistic-missile-sub/ (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| IPFM (International Panel on Fissile Materials) 2018: “Fissile material stocks: India,” http://fissilematerials.org/countries/india.html (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2016: “Indian nuclear forces,” SIPRI Yearbook 2016 Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Oxford University Press 2016, pp.641‒646. | |||||||||||
| Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2012: “Indian nuclear forces,” 2012, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2012, vol. 68, no. 4, pp.96–101. | |||||||||||
| Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2015: “Indian nuclear forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 71, no. 5, pp.77–83. | |||||||||||
| Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2017: “Indian nuclear forces, 2017,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 73, no. 4, pp.205–209. | |||||||||||
| Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2018: “Status of World Nuclear Forces,” Federation of American Scientists. http://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/ (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Mallikarjun, Y. & Subramanian, T. S. 2013: ‘India successfully test-fires underwater missile’, The Hindu, 27 Jan. 2013. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-successfully-testfires-underwater-missile/article4350553.ece (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| NDTV 2015: “India capable of developing ICBM beyond 10,000 Kilometre range: DRDO,” 4 April 2015, http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-capable-of-developing-icbm-beyond-10-000-kilometer-range-drdo-752239 (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| The New Indian Express 2017: “India successfully test fires nuclear capable Agni-III missile off Odisha coast,” 27 April 2017, http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2017/apr/27/india-successfully-test-fires-nuclear-capable-agni-iii-missile-off-odisha-coast-1598412.html (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Pandit, Rajat 2016: “India set to complete N-triad with Arihant commissioning,” 18 October 2016, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-set-to-complete-N-triad-with-Arihant-commissioning/articleshow/54907081.cms (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| The Print 2017: “Setback for Indian missile programme: Two failures in a week, submarine version stuck,” 24 December 2017, https://theprint.in/report/setback-for-indian-missile-programme-two-failures-in-a-week-submarine-version-stuck/24671/ (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Rout, Hemant K. 2018-1: “Indian army test fires surface-to-surface Prithvi-II missile signalling its operational readiness,” The New Indian Express, 7 February 2018, http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/feb/07/indian-army-test-fires-surface-to-surface-prithvi-ii-missile-signalling-its-operational-readiness-1769758.html (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Rout, Hemant K. 2018-2: “India successfully test fires nuclear capable Agni-II missile off Odisha coast,” The New Indian Express, 20 February 2018, http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/feb/20/india-successfully-test-fires-nuclear-capable-agni-ii-missile-off-odisha-coast-1776110.html (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Rout, Hemant K. 2018-3: “First night trial of nuke capable ballistic missile Prithvi-II successfully conducted in Odisha,” The New Indian Express, 21 February 2018, http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/feb/21/first-night-trial-of-nuke-capable-ballistic-missile-prithvi-ii-successfully-conducted-in-odisha-1776889.html (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Subramanian, T. S. & Mallikarjun Y. 2011: “India successfully test-fires Shourya missile,” The Hindu, 24 September 2011. http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/india-successfully-testfires-shourya-missile/article2482010.ece (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Pandit, Rajat 2016: “India successfully test-fires nuclear capable Agni-V,” The Times of India, 26 December 2016, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-successfully-test-fire-nuclear-capable-agni-5/articleshow/56177457.cms (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| The Times of India 2018-1: “India test-fires nuclear-capable ICBM Agni-V,” 18 January 2018, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-test-fires-nuclear-capable-icbm-agni-v/articleshow/62550347.cms (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| The Times of India 2018-2: “India successfully test-fires nuclear capable Agni-1,” 6 February 2018, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-successfully-test-fires-nuclear-capable-agni-1/articleshow/62801316.cms (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| The Times of India 2018-3: “‘Dhanush’ ballistic missile successfully test-fired,” 23 February 2018, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/dhanush-ballistic-missile-successfully-test-fired/articleshow/63043606.cms (accessed May 28, 2018) | |||||||||||
| Union of Concerned Scientists 2004: “Weapon Materials Basics (2009),” http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-terrorism/fissile-materials-basics#.WUTTElFpyM8 (accessed June 17, 2017) | |||||||||||
| ©RECNA Nuclear Warhead Data Monitoring Team | |||||||||||
